- March 29, 2018
- Posted by: Trading
- Category: Currency Forecast
As we head towards the long weekend, price action has proven to be fickle due to end of month/quarter flows. But that doesn’t mean opportunities won’t be around the corner.
Throughout February to mid-March, the rally on the daily chart exhibited distinct swing lows and orderly retracements. Yet, after reaching the 1.3124 high and producing a narrow-ranged spinning top, bulls encountered a rude awakening.
Range expansion presented itself with the worst session of the year, closed beneath the December 2017 high and confirmed a bearish RSI divergence. While price action is yet to take out the 1.2802 low (call it 1.2800), it appears bullish momentum is still licking its wounds and upside remains capped by the 20-day average.
We’re keeping an eye for a break below the 1.2800 low as it would confirm two bearish patterns; a head and shoulders top on the daily chart (above) and a dark cloud cover on the weekly chart (below).
We can see on the weekly chart how the dark cloud cover respected a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the upper bullish channel. While this is a wide channel that allows USD/CAD to potentially track higher as the year progresses, it still allows for a sizeable move lower if we see 1.2800 broken with conviction. Until then, we’ll patiently sit on our hands and wait for the market to make its next move.
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