AUD/USD to Stage Larger Rebound on Upbeat Australia Employment Report


Trading the News: Australia Employment Change

Australia’s Employment report may fuel the recent rebound in AUD/USD as the economy is expected to add another 16.5K jobs in June, and signs of a stronger labor market may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to alter the forward guidance for monetary policy as ‘strong growth in employment has been accompanied by a significant rise in labour force participation.

A batch of positive developments may push the RBA to drop its cautious tone as ‘recent data on the Australian economy continue to be consistent with the Bank’s central forecast for GDP growth to average a bit above 3 per cent in 2018 and 2019,’ and Governor Philip Lowe & Co. may start to show a greater willingness to lift the official cash rate off of the record-low as ‘other forward-looking indicators continue to point to solid growth in employment.

However, a below-forecast print for Australia employment may produce headwinds for the Australian dollar as it saps bets for an RBA rate-hike in 2018, and the central bank may stick to the current script at the next meeting on August 7 as ‘household income has been growing slowly and debt levels are high.Sign up and join DailyFX Junior Currency Analyst Daniel Dubrovsky LIVE to cover the updates to Australia’s employment report.

Impact that Australia Employment has had on AUD/USD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

MAY

2018

06/14/2018 01:30:00 GMT

19.0K

12.0K

-16

-93

May 2018 Australia Employment Change

AUD/USD 5-Minute Chart

Image of AUDUSD 5-minute chart

Australia added 12.0K jobs in May following a 18.3K expansion the month prior, while the Unemployment Rate narrowed to 5.4% per annum from 5.6% during the same period as the Participation rate unexpectedly slipped to 65.5% from 65.6% in April. A deeper look at the report showed full-time employment contracting 20.6K, which was offset by a 32.6K rise in part-time positions.

The Australian dollar struggled to hold its ground following the mixed figures, with AUD/USD trading lower throughout the day to close at 0.7478. Learn more with the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Image of AUDUSD daily chart

  • Broader outlook for AUD/USD remains tilted to the downside as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue to track the bearish formations from earlier this year, but the monthly opening range still remains in focus as the pair holds above the July-low (0.7311).
  • Need a close below the 0.7320 (50% expansion) to 0.7340 (61.8% retracement) region to open up the next hurdle around 0.7230 (61.8% expansion) with the next area of interest coming in around 0.7150 (161.8% expansion) to 0.7180 (61.8% retracement).

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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.



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