Australian Dollar Falls as Soft China GDP Hurts RBA Rate Hike Bets


  • China’s GDP growth rate fell to 6.5% vs 6.6% forecast
  • Australian Dollar as well as local 2-year bond yields fell
  • Trade war with the US may be hurting economic growth

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The Australian Dollar and local 2-year bond yields fell as news of China’s disappointing GDP data crossed the wires early into Friday’s Asia Pacific trading session. The report showed a 6.5% growth rate, the weakest reading in almost a decade. That may imply that traders read the outcome to mean that an RBA rate hike might come later than previously thought. An increase is expected no sooner than October 2019.

The Australian Dollar’s fall following the GDP report is part of a broader downtrend path the Aussie has been walking on since the beginning of the year. Escalating trade wars and growing risk aversion have heavily weighed down on the currency. The strengthening US Dollar and a growing interest rate differential between the RBA and the US Federal Reserve has also driven investors away from the Aussie and to the Greenback.

Australian Dollar down after Chinese 3Q GDP data

AUD/USD - 5-Minute Chart

Looking ahead, the Australian Dollar is likely to continue its downtrend as the sentiment-linked asset closely watches broader risk trends. US-driven trade wars will almost certainly continue to eat away at risk appetite and undermine global growth, sapping the appeal of the cycle-sensitive unit. Their adverse implications for the RBA policy outlook clearly seems to be potent headwind also.


— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

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