False Break Higher to Mark Top?


  • Australian Dollar reverses upside range break, signals topping
  • Key support just above 0.62, break may clear path below 0.60
  • Trader sentiment studies warn positioning favors gains for now

The Australian Dollar failed to find follow-through on a break above range resistance at 0.6570. Prices promptly reversed course and retreated back under the level. Furthermore, the appearance of a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern coupled with negative RSI divergence suggests that this ‘false breakout’ may evolve into the formation of a broader top.

Immediate range support is at 0.6373. A break below that confirmed on a daily closing basis seems likely to open the door for another test of the 0.6214-54 inflection zone. Extending lower beyond that appears to unlock the path below the 0.60 figure. Alternatively, a turn back higher faces the first layer of substantial resistance in the 0.6671-90 region, a former support level dating back to early August 2019.

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - daily

AUD/USD daily chart created with TradingView

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IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) retail sentiment data shows 67.06% of traders are net-short, with the short-to-long ratio at 2.04 to 1. This is typically used as a contrarian indicator, so traders being net-short suggests AUD/USD is biased upward.

In fact, the net-short tilt has grown compared with yesterday and a week before, which seemingly bolsters the case for gains. However, the size of the positioning mismatch is approaching levels where sentiment extremes have often occurred previously, warning that a ‘flip’ may not be far away.

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar price, trader sentiment

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— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

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