Forex – Weekly Outlook: Feb. 25

© Reuters. – In what promises to be a jam packed week markets will be eyeing developments in U.S.-China trade talks ahead of Friday’s looming deadline and will get an overdue update of the health of the world’s largest economy with Thursday’s report on U.S. fourth quarter growth.

On Friday U.S. President Donald Trump said he was open to extending the March 1 deadline for hiking tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25% as long as progress was being made in negotiations between the two sides.

While the trade talks continue Trump is set to hold a second summit meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Wednesday and Thursday in Hanoi.

Data on U.S. fourth-quarter gross domestic product is due to be released on Thursday. The release of the report was delayed by the 35-day partial government shutdown.

Figures on personal consumption expenditure, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, are scheduled to be released on Friday. Other economic data releases of note this week include housing starts and building permits on Tuesday and consumer sentiment and manufacturing on Friday.

The data will be closely watched after recent reports on durable goods, retail sales and existing home sales all disappointed.

Testimony on the economic outlook and monetary policy plans by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday will also be closely watched. Last week’s minutes from the Fed’s January meeting showed it saw downside risks to global growth increasing, and that it saw little risk from keeping interest rates on hold for now.

The dollar dipped against a currency basket on Friday amid hopes that a trade deal between Washington and Beijing is getting closer.

The ticked down to 96.405 late Friday. The index ended the week down 0.4% after gaining more than 1% the previous week, in an uneven performance following mixed U.S. economic data.

“The market has moved back to a risk on-mode putting downward pressure on the dollar,” said Alfonso Esparza, senior market analyst at OANDA in Toronto.

“Stocks and commodities have moved up on dollar softness and the optimism that even if the March 1 deadline approaches it will not immediately trigger new tariffs,” he added.

The euro was flat against the dollar on Friday. Weak data since January has undermined support for the single currency, which last traded at 1.1341.

The pound and the yen were also little changed against the greenback, with last at 1.3052 and at 110.68.

Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 25

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is to speak at an event in London.

Fed Governor Richard Clarinda is to speak in Texas.

Tuesday, February 26

BoE Governor Mark Carney and several other policymakers are to testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament’s Treasury Committee.

The U.S. is to release data on building permits and housing starts as well as a report on consumer confidence.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to testify on the semiannual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington.

Wednesday, February 27

New Zealand is to publish trade figures.

Canada is to release data on consumer price inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to testify on the central bank’s monetary policy report for a second day Washington.

The U.S. is also to produce data on pending home sales and factory orders.

Thursday, February 28

New Zealand is to publish data on business confidence.

Australia is to release figures on private capital expenditure.

China is to produce figures on manufacturing and non-manufacturing data.

Germany is to publish preliminary data on consumer price inflation.

Canada is to report on raw material price inflation.

The U.S. is to release an advance estimate of fourth quarter growth, along with the weekly report on jobless claims and data on business activity in the Chicago area.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak at an event in New York.

Friday, March 1

China is to publish its Caixin PMI.

The euro area is to publish revised figures on manufacturing activity as well as preliminary data on consumer inflation and unemployment figures.

The U.K. is to publish its manufacturing PMI.

Canada is to report figures on GDP growth.

The U.S. is to release data on personal income and spending along with the core PCE price index. The Institute of Supply Management is to round up the week with its manufacturing index.

— Reuters contributed to this report

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