Opening Bell: Markets Optimistic Ahead Of U.S. Jobs Data; Oil Rebounds


  • US futures advance ahead of US jobless data
  • European stocks boosted by corporate results
  • Gold rallies

Key Events

Futures on the , , and were higher ahead of the US session on Thursday as markets keenly await upcoming US economic data which investors expect will show the recovery is ongoing. 

Surging commodity prices compounded strong bank earnings in fanning the inflation debate.

Global Financial Affairs

Today’s rally, even if cautious, expresses the steadfast optimism of traders. It is reflected at the micro level by strong corporate earnings, and at the macro level by key economic indicators.

All four major US contracts advanced as traders awaited the latest data today. The debate continues raging in markets on whether inflation will damage the economic recovery.

Substantial US fiscal aid has helped boost commodity prices, along with the US economy overall, and this has raised concerns that the Fed will have to begin stepping back from its unprecedented support with the stock market is at all-time highs. 

However, Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren thinks the conditions are not right for the Fed to start tapering its QE program, but that may change by the end of the year.

In Europe, the index fell slightly despite strong results from banks and automakers. Banks outperformed due to rising rates and automakers were higher as consumers seem to be willing to spend their money on cars they believe they will be able to drive as the economy reopens.

Volkswagen (DE:) increased its earnings outlook after a strong . While investors cheered a smashing from Societe Generale (PA:), pushing the stock to its highest level since the beginning of March—almost reaching its pre-pandemic level. The French bank reported its global markets division recorded its highest revenues since 2015, a sharp rebound, as revenues at the division were nearly wiped out last year. Given that banks perform well in a rising interest rate environment, and investors are forward-looking, banks’ success—to put it mildly—may add angst to any preexisting inflation worries. 

The UK’s rose 0.3%, despite today’s Scottish parliamentary elections. If the Scottish National Party wins a clear majority, it will demand a second vote on Scottish independence, which may weigh on the . GBP is already falling ahead of the latest policy from the BoE. 

EUR/GBP Daily

The is developing a potential H&S bottom.

In yesterday’s New York session, US stocks were dented by an ongoing technology selloff, which stole the thunder from solid corporate earnings and good economic reports.

Yields on the Treasury note struggled, pushing back against a fourth straight decline.

10-year Treasuries Daily

They seem to have found resistance by a double top, which may broaden into a larger H&S top.

The fell for a second day but still within a possible small H&S bottom.

Dollar Daily

The slide could confirm the (red) uptrend line, potentially ending the decline that followed the rising wedge and a return to advances, as the aftermath of a massive falling wedge since the 2020 peak.

advanced to its highest level since Feb. 24.

Gold Daily

The yellow metal is struggling to move past a falling flag, to retest the top of a falling channel.

was little changed.

Bitcoin Daily

The forces of supply and demand in the cryptocurrency are even, amid the development of a H&S top that follows a rising wedge, aiming at the $30,000 levels.

rebounded back above $65 and it seems to be benefiting from a positive economic outlook. 

Up ahead 

  • The April US is released on Friday 
  • On Friday, Canada publishes its change in figures.

Market Moves

Stocks

  • Futures on the S&P 500 Index advanced 0.3%.
  • The Index jumped 0.6%.
  • The Index increased 0.2%.

Currencies

  • The Dollar Index declined 0.1%.
  • The jumped 0.1% to $1.2023.
  • The British pound was little changed at $1.3906.
  • The weakened 0.1% to 6.479 per dollar.
  • The weakened 0.1% to 109.30 per dollar.

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries increased one basis point to 1.57%.
  • The yield on Treasuries gained less than one basis point to 0.15%.
  • Germany’s yield fell one basis point to -0.24%.
  • Britain’s yield sank two basis points to 0.802%.
  • Japan’s yield decreased one basis point to 0.091%.

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed at $65.62 a barrel.
  • increased 0.1% to $69.05 a barrel.
  • Gold strengthened 0.3% to $1,793.05 an ounce.



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