USD/CAD: Canadian Dollar At 2-Week High, U.S. Consumer Inflation Next


The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged in the Thursday session. Currently, is trading at 1.3006, up 0.05% on the day. On the release front, Canada releases , which is expected to post a gain of 0.1% for a second straight month. In the U.S., the focus will be on key consumer inflation reports. CPI is expected to edge up to 0.3%, while is forecast to remain pegged at 0.2%. As well, unemployment claims are expected to rise to 213,000. On Friday, the U.S. release and .

The Canadian dollar has rallied this week, gaining 1.2%, as it hovers at the symbolic 1.30 level. Trade talks between the U.S. and Canada are continuing, with the parties hoping to wrap up an agreement shortly. The Bank of Canada is also keeping a close eye on the NAFTA negotiations Last week’s rate announcement that policy-makers would be “monitoring closely the course of the NAFTA negotiations and other trade policy developments, and their impact on the inflation outlook.” With the Canadian economy performing well and the Fed likely raising rates later this month, there is pressure on the BoC to again raise rates in 2018. However, concerns over NAFTA and global trade tensions have won the day for now, as the BoC took a pass on a rate hike.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Thursday (September 13)

  • 8:30 Canadian NHPI. Estimate 0.1%
  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 210K
  • 10:00 US FOMC Member Rafael Bostic Speaks
  • 10:30 US Storage. Estimate 65B
  • 13:01 30-year Bond Auction
  • 13:15 US FOMC Member Raphael Bostic Speaks
  • 14:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -169.8B

Friday (September 14)

  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.5%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -0.2%
  • 9:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 78.3%
  • 9:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.3%
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 96.7
  • 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.5%
  • 10:00 Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Thursday, September 13, 2018

USD/CAD for Sept. 12-14, 2018.

USD/CAD for Sept. 12-14, 2018.

USD/CAD, September 13 at 8:05 DST

Open: 1.3000 High: 1.3018 Low: 1.2994 Close: 1.3006

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2831 1.2970 1.3067 1.3160 1.3292 1.3386

USD/CAD was flat for most of the Asian session and has ticked upwards in European trade

  • 1.3067 was tested earlier in support. It is a weak line
  • 1.3160 was tested earlier in resistance
  • Current range: 1.3160 to 1.3292

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3067, 1.2970 and 1.2831
  • Above: 1.3160, 1.3292, 1.3386, and 1.3547

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