USD/CAD: Canadian Dollar Subdued As No Progress On U.S-China Trade War


The Canadian dollar has posted losses in the Monday session. Currently, is trading at 1.3190, up 0.32% on the day. On the release front, it’s a quiet start to the week, with no Canadian indicators. The U.S. releases , which is expected show little change. On Tuesday, the U.S. releases and .

The simmering trade dispute between the U.S. and China shows no signs of being resolved anytime soon, which does not bode well for minor currencies like the Canadian dollar. An Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Papua New Guinea ended in discord on Sunday, with leaders unable to agree on a final communique. U.S. Vice-President Mike Pence, who headed the U.S. delegation, was blunt in his remarks, saying that China would have to drastically change its trade practices before the U.S. would remove current tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods.

In the U.S., consumer inflation and spending numbers were strong in October. On Thursday, the U.S. released retail sales reports. Retail sales rebounded with a strong gain of 0.7% in October, after a decline of 0.1% a month earlier. Core retail sales jumped 0.8%, after a gain of 0.1% in September. There was good news from the inflation front on Wednesday, as U.S. consumer inflation numbers beat their estimates for October. The consumer price index posted a gain of 0.3%, its strongest gain since January. , which excludes food and energy prices edged higher to 0.2%, marking a 3-month high. Both releases were in line with forecasts. Core CPI was 2.1% higher than a year ago. The solid consumer data means that the Fed remains on track to continue raising interest rates. The Federal Reserve holds its next policy meeting in December, with the odds of a December rate hike at 69%, slightly lower compared to last week.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Tuesday (November 20)

  • 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.26M
  • 8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.23M

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Monday, November 19, 2018

USD/CAD for Nov. 18-20, 2018.

USD/CAD for Nov. 18-20, 2018.

USD/CAD, November 19 at 9:00 EST

Open: 1.3149 High: 1.3196 Low: 1.3142 Close: 1.3196

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2831 1.2970 1.3099 1.3198 1.3292 1.3383

USD/CAD posted small gains in the Asian and European sessions. The pair has followed this trend in North American trade

  • 1.3099 is providing support
  • 1.3198 is a weak resistance line
  • Current range: 1.3099 to 1.3198

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3099, 1.2970 and 1.2831
  • Above: 1.3198, 1.3292, 1.3383 and 1.3461

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.



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