USD/CAD: Canadian Dollar Subdued As U.S. Retail Sales Jump

The Canadian dollar is showing little movement in the Monday session. Currently, the is trading at 1.3423, up 0.04% on the day. In the U.S., retail sales rebounded in February. sparkled with a 0.9% gain, up from -1.8% in January. improved to 0.2%, compared to -1.2% in the previous release. Both indicators beat their estimates. There are no Canadian events until Thursday. On Tuesday, the U.S. releases CPI numbers.

Canada and the U.S. both ended the week with key employment numbers, albeit with very different results. Canada added 55,900, crushing the estimate of 600. In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls plunged to 20,000, much worse than the forecast of 180,000. Wage growth improved to 0.4%, above the estimate of 0.3%. The Canadian dollar responded with slight gains on Friday, after rolling off five six losing sessions.

There were no surprises from the Bank of Canada last week. The bank stayed on the sidelines and maintained the benchmark rate at 1.75%, where rates have been pegged since October. The rate statement was dovish, as policy-makers dropped a reference to rates rising over time. Instead, the bank said that the economy will continue to require stimulus and said that there was “increased uncertainty” about future rate hikes. The pessimistic language is a result of the economic slowdown, which has been worse than the bank anticipated. The BoC’s dovish tone has reinforced market expectations that the bank will not raise rates in the near future, and could lower rates if the economy continues to weaken. Canada’s GDP contracted by 0.1% in November and December, and another decline could send the Canadian dollar even lower.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Monday (March 11)

  • 00:00 Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 13:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%
  • 13:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.0%
  • 15:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.6%

Tuesday (March 12)

  • 1:00 Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 13:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 13:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Monday, March 11, 2019

USD/CAD for March 10-12, 2019.

USD/CAD for March 10-12, 2019.

USD/CAD, March 11 at 8:15 EST

Open: 1.3417 High: 1.3440 Low: 1.3406 Close: 1.3426

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3200 1.3290 1.3383 1.3445 1.3552 1.3662

USD/CAD inched higher in the Asian session and is showing little movement in European trade

  • 1.3383 is providing support
  • 1.3445 is a weak resistance line
  • Current range: 1.3383 to 1.3445

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below:1.3383, 1.3290, 1.3200 and 1.3125
  • Above: 1.3445, 1.3552 and 1.3662

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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