Will the Euro Continue to Ignore Soft Data? German IFO on Tap.


Talking Points:

  • Euro may shrug off yet another soft data point in German IFO survey
  • Australian Dollar corrects higher as US Treasury bond yields retreat
  • What will drive longer-term FX market trends? See our forecasts here

Germany’s IFO business confidence survey headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Sentiment is expected to have soured in July after the headline Business Climate index climbed to the highest level in nearly three decades in the prior month. An outcome echoing recently disappointing regional news-flow might have weighed on the Euro, but it has proven resilient in the face of soft data.

Indeed, yesterday’s price action seemed telling: the single currency pulled back from a two-year high set against the US Dollar but the move began conspicuously before a soft set of PMI figures crossed the wires. Last week, it was bold enough to shrug off a pointedly dovish ECB. This warns that traditional fundamentals are taking a backseat to other forces, at least for now. With that in mind, caution seems prudent.

The Australian Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet Asian trade. The currency advanced inversely of a drop in US Treasury bond yields. The move appeared corrective after the Aussie fell as US borrowing costs edged up. In a broader sense, the relationship seems to speak to the Australian unit’s role as a yield-seeking alternative to the greenback amid cooling Fed rate hike speculation.

What do retail traders’ buy/sell decisions say about FX market trends? Find out here!

Asia Session

European Session

Will the Euro Continue to Ignore Soft Data? German IFO on Tap.

** All times listed in GMT. See the full DailyFX economic calendar here.

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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